Flu cases in England have increased sharply, prompting NHS leaders to warn of a “worst-case scenario” for this time of year as hospital admissions accelerate. The latest data shows a steep rise linked to a mutated strain of influenza, adding significant pressure to an already stretched health service.
Professor Meghana Pandit, national medical director at the NHS, said the surge represented an “unprecedented wave of super flu”, noting that the number of patients in hospital remains extremely high and continues to rise. She warned that the peak is not yet in sight, with staff working at full capacity to sustain care.
The escalation is partly attributed to the H3N2 “subclade K” strain, a variant of influenza A that has undergone a substantial mutation. Scientists said the virus has circulated at low levels in recent years, limiting natural immunity. Influenza evolves through patterns of gradual “drift” punctuated by sudden “shift”, with the latest changes placing additional strain on public health systems.
NHS England reported an average of 2,660 flu patients in hospital each day last week, a 55 per cent increase on the previous week. Officials said this number now exceeds the capacity of more than three large hospital trusts. Projections indicate admissions could reach 5,000 to 8,000 per day by the end of the week, surpassing previous records.
Alongside rising admissions, the NHS has intensified calls for eligible people to get vaccinated to reduce the risk of severe illness. The health service provides free flu vaccinations to groups considered most vulnerable, including people aged 65 and over, those with long-term medical conditions, pregnant women, care home residents, carers, and individuals who live with someone with a weakened immune system. Frontline health and social care workers are also eligible for vaccination through their employers.
Children aged 2 to 3 years, as well as school-aged children from reception to year 11, are offered a nasal spray version of the flu vaccine. Health officials emphasise that children can easily catch and spread flu, and vaccinating them helps protect those at higher risk of complications.
NHS leaders said the coming weeks will be challenging as the health system faces rising winter pressures, staff shortages and uncertainty over when flu cases will peak.